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本周筆者主持投資節目,較多人提出的投資者疑難,莫過於業績期的投資部署。不少投資者會問,為何買入的正股,業績明明好過預期,股價卻在業績後急插水?卻有為何部分業績平平的股份,績後卻有理想表現?
正如股評人沈大師於周五「一周輪證焦點」節目所講;「業績好不代表股價升,業績壞亦不代表股價跌,業績跟股價走勢不一定有因果關係﹗」
的確,業績反映的是公司過去一段時間的業務表現,股價卻是由市場即市供求主導,很大程度受投資氣氛所影響,當然公司的股值高低,前景如何等等亦是資金盤算入場的部分參考,因此若純以業績等基本因素便認為股價會跟升跟跌,未免過於簡單化了。
特別是在現今市場的複雜性及不明朗性高企,美息走勢未明,地緣政治等風險仍在的環境下,大家部署業績的時候,已跟以往旺市時大不同,因此要多加留意注碼上的控制及對沖風險的重要性。
就以本周出業績的阿里(9988)為例,公司第三季純利升69%,非公認淨利潤增12%,大行維持買入評級,較樂觀看目標價214元。業績後美股時段上升,然後到港股時段反而要破底向下試90元關口。其實不少投資者於今年頭兩個月,特別是當股價於二月回軟時,買入不少阿里認購證,當中有四隻滙豐發行之相關阿里認購證(數據直至2月23日)街貨達8成之上,其中有兩隻完全沽清,投資者現階段欲開好倉可先留意較低街貨產品,以減低供求因素對輪價之影響。
若投資者在入場部署業績前,在看好的同時多加一方防守性,以部分資金買入淡倉如認沽證作對沖風險,即使業績後股價未如預期,淡倉能發揮一定的保險作用。下周至三月份繼續有業績期,投資者不妨多加留意以上要點。
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