16987/快手購15133" />
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受到內地7月製造業活動不及預期的影響,恒生指數(HSI)周四(31/7)表現低迷,成為亞洲主要股市中跌幅較大的市場之一,早段下跌逾1%,失守 25,000關口。如料心理關口失守後仍有下跌空間,看淡可留意恒指認沽證(17236),行使價22,089點,2025年11月到期,實際槓桿11.6倍。另一方面,政治局承諾推進重點行業產能治理,以及依法依規治理企業無序競爭,另牛熊證街貨分布圖顯示牛證重貨區在24,800點附近,如料政策利好後市及看好24,800支持,可關注輕微價外認購證(15511),行使價25,929點,2025年9月到期,實際槓桿17.7倍。
在行業競爭方面,抖音計劃整合即時零售服務,以加強其電子商務業務。美團(3690)作為內地即時配送及本地生活服務的龍頭企業,市場關注競爭情況,致其股價周四裂口下挫半成,如認為股價仍持續走弱,看淡可關注認沽證(18434),行使價109.9元,2025年12月到期,實際槓桿4.8倍。相反,內地商務部智庫預計,到2030年即時商務市場規模將超過2兆元人民幣。如認為將為美團等企業帶來長遠增長空間,看好股價長遠走向,可關注中長線認購證(18173),行使價146.78元,2026年3月到期,實際槓桿4.6倍。
阿里巴巴(9988)近期在即時配送及人工智能領域積極布局,力圖鞏固其在內地電商市場的領導地位。公司旗下的「通義千問」AI大模型近日推出新版本,強化推理能力及上下文處理,並已在多個開源平台上發布。如料AI發展能帶動股價,看好可參考認購證(29041),行使價140.1元,2025年12月到期,實際槓桿6.7倍。相反,阿里巴巴在即時配送領域面臨來自抖音、美團及京東的激烈競爭。如看淡股價可關注認沽證(17765),行使價96.95元,2026年4月到期,實際槓桿4.3倍。
快手(1024)則因大行上調目標價及AI業務發展迅速,成為周四表現最亮眼的藍籌股之一,股價一度急升近一成。分析師預計快手今年營收將按年增長12%,經調整淨利潤增長10%。如看好可關注快手認購證(15133),行使價90.29元,2025年12月到期,實際槓桿5.5倍。相反,如認為升幅過急,看淡可考慮快手認沽證(18474),行使價49.83元,2026年12月到期,實際槓桿2.3倍。
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