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Important Risk Warning
This structured product is a not-collateralised. The standard warrants ('Standard Warrants'), inline warrants (‘Inline Warrants’) and/or callable bull/bear contracts ('CBBCs') are non-collateralised structured products involving derivatives (‘Structured Products’) and are complex products. Investors should exercise caution in relation to them. Do not invest in them unless you fully understand and are willing to assume the risks associated with them. The price of the Structured Products may fall in value as rapidly as it may rise and investors may sustain a total or substantial loss of their investment. Prospective investors should ensure that they understand the nature and risks and seek professional advice where applicable.
Trading structured products with United States (US) underlying index may be exposed to additional risks, including:
(i)Risks relating to difference in trading days and hours
The US underlying index level is calculated and published during the trading hours of the respective index exchange. The US index futures contracts are traded on the respective index futures exchange. The trading days and hours of the index exchange and the index futures exchange (based on Hong Kong time) are different from that of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. In assessing the price of the structured products, you should be aware of the differences in the time zone and the actual trading days and hours of the relevant exchanges in Hong Kong and the United States. For example, the underlying index level may be volatile during a period which the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong is not open for trading of the structured products.
(ii)Less public information about the US underlying index and such information may not be available in Chinese
There may be less publicly available information about the US underlying index than those about Hong Kong indices and some of that information may not be available in Chinese. If you do not understand any such information, you should obtain independent advice.
(iii)Political and economic risks relating to the US underlying index
The US underlying index level may be subject to political, economic, financial and social factors that apply in those geographical regions (such as the United States), which may differ favourably or unfavourably from those factors that apply to Hong Kong. Moreover, foreign economies may also differ favourably or unfavourably from the Hong Kong economy in important respects such as, including but not limited to, growth of gross national product, rate of inflation, capital reinvestment, resources and self-sufficiency.
(iv)Exchange rate risks
As the trading price of the constituent stocks comprising the US underlying index is quoted in United States Dollars (“US$”) but the structured products will be settled in Hong Kong Dollars (“HK$”), there will be an exchange rate risk when we convert US$ into HK$ in the calculation of the cash settlement amount.
(v)Possible delay in settlement
The valuation date could be postponed if such day is not the day on which the index futures contracts expire on the respective index futures exchange. Such postponement will in turn result in a delay for settlement of the structured products accordingly.
(vi)Publication of US index level when component shares are not trading
The index compiler may publish the index level at a time when one or more shares comprising the index are not trading. In such case, the index level may be calculated by the index compiler by reference to the remaining shares comprising the index. This may have an unforeseen adverse impact on the value of your investment.
(vii) Occurrence of Mandatory Call Event for US Index CBBCs outside trading hours
US Index CBBCs linked to overseas underlying assets may be called outside the Stock Exchange’s trading hours. In such cases, the US Index CBBCs will be suspended from trading on the Stock Exchange in the next trading session or soon after the issuer has notified the Stock Exchange about the occurrence of the Mandatory Call Event. There will be no automatic suspension of the US Index CBBCs by the trading systems of the Stock Exchange’s securities market upon the occurrence of a Mandatory Call Event. For Category R US Index CBBCs, valuation of the residual value will be determined on the valuation day according to the terms and conditions as set out in accordance with the relevant listing documents.
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Illustration of performance or data of past performance of any Structured Products and/or other investments whether contained in this website or otherwise is not indicative of and does not represent a guarantee of any future performance. Inline warrant is newly introduced to the market and there are no similar products currently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for comparison.
Base Listing Document and Launch Announcement and Supplemental Listing Document
Investors are warned that the prices of the Structured Products may fall in value as rapidly as it may rise and holders may sustain a total or substantial loss of their investment. CBBCs have a mandatory call feature and may therefore be subject to early termination, upon which (i) investors in category N CBBCs will lose all of their investments in the CBBCs; and (ii) the residual value of category R CBBCs may be zero. Inline warrants carry exotic features, and their terms and pricing may be more complicated than standard derivative warrants. Maximum potential payoff is fixed and capped. Price movement of the inline warrants may be disproportionate or opposite to the price movement of the underlying asset.
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Inconsistencies
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不同市況下的認股證選證策略(下跌趨勢)
摘要
-下跌趨勢中,博反彈與順勢部署的選證邏輯並不相同。
-博反彈時,過分進取的短期價外認購證容易受時間值損耗及波幅回落拖累。
-順勢部署認沽證時,亦需留意急跌後整固期間的波幅回落風險。
市場上同一相關資產往往有不少認股證可供選擇,投資者在揀選時,難免會問:「我應該選哪一隻認股證?」不少投資者對認股證的特性了解有限,最終只以成交金額高低作為選證標準。這樣做容易買入不符合自己投資目標或風險承受能力的產品,而承受過高風險卻未必察覺。因應不同市況及相關資產走勢,投資者在行使價、到期日、價內外程度及引伸波幅等條款上的取向,亦應有所不同。
下跌趨勢
這裡我們先談談投資者較多買賣認股證的場景 -下跌趨勢。
(1)下跌趨勢下的博反彈部署
當相關資產股價形成下跌趨勢時,投資者較多會買入認購證,且一般在兩個情況下進場買入認購證,其一,是正股可能仍未見止跌訊號,但單日已出現較大跌幅。由於當日相關資產跌幅較大,相關認購證價格往往亦會顯著下跌,因此容易吸引投資者進場博反彈。其二,則是正股急跌後開始出現橫行走勢,投資者認為相關資產短期跌勢收斂,並有機會出現技術反彈。
(i)當相關資產突然出現顯著跌幅
常見風險: 如因相關資產出現不利消息,或是業績表現不佳而重挫,股價能在短期內重返原點的機會較低,如投資者入場時選擇了較價外的認購證,一旦相關資產未止跌,原來已屬價外的認購證會進一步變得更為價外,持有這類認股證的時間值損耗較高。
此外,當相關資產價格急跌時,相關期權的引伸波幅往往有機會在當天上升。若其後相關資產未能在短期內出現明顯反彈,急跌時被推高的引伸波幅,往往會在股價稍為喘定時開始回落。
重要事項 :因此,雖然高實際槓桿的短期價外證看似對股價反彈較為敏感,但若短期內股價未見明顯反彈,其風險亦相對較高。投資者甚至可能面對股價僅微幅反彈,但認購證價格反而下跌的情況;又或者即使引伸波幅變化不大,持有一段時間後,認購證的升幅仍不足以彌補期間的時間值損耗。因此,投資者如非有較大把握,否則宜選擇一些行使價較貼近正股現價的「貼價」證,而到期日亦不宜過短,可考慮三至六個月後到期的產品,以減少時間值損耗過快的風險;惟實際選擇仍取決於預期持有期、風險承受能力及市場判斷。
(ii)當相關資產急跌後進入橫行整固
當相關資產股價急跌時,其期權之引伸波幅通常會短期向上,以反映未來股價可能出現較大波幅。不過,當相關資產股價急跌後回穩,成交金額回落,且日內波幅下降時,其期權引伸波幅往往亦會逐步回落。
常見風險: 橫行整固的時間越久,其引伸波幅回落的壓力越大。因此,若投資者在相關資產急跌後橫行整固期間部署反彈,並買入短期且價外的認購證,便可能面對引伸波幅明顯回落的風險。由於短期且價外的認股證,其價格對引伸波幅變化通常較為敏感,因此未必適合作為相關資產股價初步回穩後博反彈的工具。
逆勢而為本身已屬較高風險的操作,若再配以較進取、風險特質較高的認購證,整體風險便會進一步上升。
重要事項 :若投資者未能在較短時間內按原定部署離場,即使相關資產其後出現反彈,亦未必足以抵銷高風險條款產品所帶來的時間值損耗及波幅回落影響。因此,若選證過於進取,最終錄得虧損的可能性並不低。因此,除非投資者有速戰速決的把握,否則宜選擇一些行使價較貼近正股現價的「貼價」證,而到期日亦不宜過短,可考慮三至六個月後到期的產品。
作為認股證發行商,我們亦盡力為不同相關資產提供貼價及價外證的選擇,令投資者如欲在下跌趨勢下部署反彈,會有更多工具可以對應當市時況作出部署。
(2)下跌趨勢下的順勢部署策略
上文提及了下跌趨勢下博反彈的選證策略。事實上,當下跌趨勢形成時,除了逆勢博反彈外,投資者亦可考慮順勢部署認沽證,或待相關資產在跌勢中出現技術反彈時,再候高吸納認沽證。不過,當中亦有一些選證及部署上的細節值得留意。
(i)當相關資產突然出現顯著跌幅
如上文所述,若相關資產出現不利消息,或業績表現遜於預期,股價可能突然出現較大跌幅。
若投資者選擇順勢追沽,部分較短年期、而價外幅度未算太高的認沽證,短期內有機會同時受惠於兩個因素:其一,是相關資產期權的引伸波幅上升;其二,是原本到價機會較低的產品,在股價急跌後其到價可能性明顯提高。在這種情況下,認沽證價格有時可能出現較預期更大的升幅。
常見風險: 不過,投資者亦需留意,當相關資產價格開始回穩並出現技術反彈時,短期貼價認沽證的引伸波幅可能回落得較快。若投資者未必能緊貼市場節奏,則可考慮年期較長的認沽證,以減低短期時間值損耗及波幅快速回落對價格的影響。
(ii)當相關資產急跌後進入橫行整固
常見風險:當相關資產價格急跌後,往往會進入一段整固期,即股價跌勢放緩,但其後仍可能先出現技術反彈,再跌穿支持位並朝更低水平發展。不過,當股價跌勢放緩時,一些年期較短的認沽證,其引伸波幅往往會面對較大的回落壓力。
重要事項 :在這種情況下,投資者可考慮待技術反彈出現時,若相關資產未能重上阻力區,再採取候高部署認沽證的策略。相對而言,中長年期的認沽證或較值得留意,因為這類產品在前期急跌時的引伸波幅累積升幅通常沒有短期證那麼大,因此其後面對波幅回落的壓力亦可能較低。
此外,第二波跌勢未必再以裂口急跌的形式出現,而可能是在買盤動力不足下逐步回落。在這類走勢中,中長年期、較貼價的認沽證往往較為合適。
不過,即使屬順勢部署,若跌勢未如預期延續,或市場突然出現急速反彈,認沽證價格亦可能因方向錯誤、引伸波幅回落及時間值損耗而迅速受壓。故此,即使投資者選擇了較切合當時市況的認股證條款,也不代表在看錯市況時可以不止蝕。尤其當股份止跌後,不論只是回穩還是反彈,認沽期權的引伸波幅通常會較快回落;若同時市場上高息票據(如 ELN)承造增加,帶動認沽期權供應上升,這種波幅回落壓力便可能更為明顯。
如您也想了解在上升趨勢時的選證策略,請繼續閱讀〈不同市況下的認股證選證策略 -上升趨勢篇 〉
Check point:
以下哪個是在下跌市況中可考慮的選證策略?