This article available in Chinese version only

中移派息大增 對輪價是驚是喜?

2022-08-18

 筆者在早前曾提到股息對輪證價格的影響,踏入藍籌業績期,果然有重磅股派息高於市場預期,影響到窩輪的價格表現。中移動(0941)公布業績,2022年上半年純利702.75億元人民幣,按年升18.87%。公司派息較去年多近35%至中期息每股2.2港元。管理層更指出,全年派息會在2021年的基礎上再提升, 2023年達到年初的目標70%派息比率。

業績公布後,中移動股價節節向上,相關的認購證雖然同步造好,但有部份的少升幅較理論為少。投資者或會問為何正股升,認購證會有「升不足」的情況?

其實中移動的例子與股息有直接關係。首先,發行人在發行一隻窩輪產品的時候,定價前會根據該正股過去的派息紀錄去預計未來的股息水平, 若正股股息與預期出入不大,而假設其他因素不變下,股價除淨理論上不會對輪價帶來影響。不過,就正如中移動以上的例子,一旦股息的水平與發行人的預期有較大出入,輪價便要作出反映。一般來說,派息較預期多利淡認購證、利好認沽證。相反,派息較預期少會利好認購證、利淡認沽證。中移動這次派息較預期多,被低估的股息反映在輪價後,認購證的升幅因此較理論為少。

 順帶一提,有一類的「意外」是不會對輪價帶來影響。根據上市規定,若公司宣佈派特別股息,且金額超過股份價格的2%,一般的情況下,發行商會在股份除息當日,調整輪證的行使價、換股比率等參數,以反映特別股息所帶來的影響。個別股份情況請留意發行商及港交所的有關上市文件。

最後,有部署窩輪的投資者亦須留意引伸波幅的變化,筆者觀察到是次中移動業績後,彭博顯示短期上市期權引伸波幅由績前的22點子回落至17點子水平,故對輪證亦有負面影響,特別是年期較短及非常價外的產品。因此投資者如續看好績後股價並認為引伸波幅將會回升的話,不妨考慮以中年期(3個月以上),貼價(行使價距離現價5-15%)的認購證作重新部署。

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本結構性產品並無抵押品,如發行人無力償債或違約,投資者可能無法收回部份或全部應收款項。

本文由香港上海匯豐銀行有限公司(「本行」或「發行商」)發行(包括任何參考條款),僅供參考之用,並不構成邀約、游說、或建議出售或購買結構性產品。

結構性產品屬複雜產品,投資者務須就此審慎行事,除非投資者完全了解及願意承擔所涉風險,否則切勿投資此產品。結構性產品價格可急升可急跌,投資者或會損失所有或大部分投資。過往表現並不反映將來表現。投資前應了解結構性產品之性質及風險,並詳閱有關上市文件,獨立決定是否適合自己,若需要應諮詢專業建議。本行及其委任之流通量提供者可能是結構性產品的唯一市場參與者,而結構性產品的二級市場可能有限。謹請注意,牛熊證設有強制收回機制,因此有可能提早終止,在此情況下(i)N類牛熊證投資者會損失於牛熊證的全部投資;而(ii)R類牛熊證之剩餘價值則可能為零。買賣與美國指數掛鈎的結構性產品可能帶有額外風險,包括:(a)與交易日和交易時間差異有關的風險;(b) 有關指數的公開資料較少,或未有提供中文版本;(c) 與指數有關的政治和經濟風險(例如美國);(d) 匯率風險; (e) 可能延遲結算及(f) 在成份股並無交易時公佈指數水平與MSCI中國A50互聯互通指數掛鈎的衍生權證投資者可能會承受額外風險,包括:(i) 新推出指數的風險;(ii) 指數成份股為透過滬港通及/或深港通在滬港通及深港通的北向交易渠道買賣的A股;(iii) 有關指數的公開資料較少,且該等資料或未有提供中文版本;(iv) 與指數有關的政治及經濟風險;(v) 匯率風險;及(vi) 人民幣利率風險。

作者為金管局及證監會持牌人士,並無就結構性產品或相關資產持有任何直接或間接權益。
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