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窩輪反將風險降(二)?

2022-07-25

上期提到如何利用窩輪槓桿的特性,以「風險」去控制「風險」,簡單來說是將投放於市場的資金縮減,繼續保持捕捉市場動態的機會,又不失保障大部分本金的重要性。

 

美國聯儲局議息將至,加上月底是期指結算的日子,市場不確定性或較多。觀望氣氛較濃的市況中,投資者想繼續以窩輪作部署,宜多加留意市場的引伸波幅走勢。

 

參考過去六月反映市場波動性預期的恒指波幅指數, 由月初的27,一度於月中逼近32,但到7月就反覆下跌,一周內跌至26,其後兩周升至30附近又再回落至27樓下。若將時間軸拉長,原來年初至今的引伸波幅高位見過50樓上,當時恒指於3月低見近18,400點的今年低位,其後隨市況回升,引伸波幅亦隨之回落,但只略跌穿25,並未有跌至年初20之下水平。

 

窩輪其實是一種期權的衍生工具,價格水平除了取決於相關資產走勢,亦受引伸波幅影響。簡單來說,引伸波幅高即反映相關資產走勢愈為波動,亦令窩輪由價外變為價內的機會增加,因此窩輪價格可以因為看對引伸波幅及相關資產價格走勢而變得水漲船高。相反,在引伸波幅下跌的情況下,相關資產波動性減少,股價「躺平」自然令行使的機會減少,因此輪價亦會受負面影響。

 

因此,投資者決定以窩輪部署時,隨了判斷相關資產走勢之外,亦宜對後市波幅的走勢有所評估。若認為引伸波幅有機會受壓,則可以年期較中線的產品應市,因為該產品對引伸波幅變化敏感度較低。相反,若認為波幅有機會反彈,一些短身證所受的正面拉動作用就較大。

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本結構性產品並無抵押品,如發行人無力償債或違約,投資者可能無法收回部份或全部應收款項。

本文由香港上海匯豐銀行有限公司(「本行」或「發行商」)發行(包括任何參考條款),僅供參考之用,並不構成邀約、游說、或建議出售或購買結構性產品。

結構性產品屬複雜產品,投資者務須就此審慎行事,除非投資者完全了解及願意承擔所涉風險,否則切勿投資此產品。結構性產品價格可急升可急跌,投資者或會損失所有或大部分投資。過往表現並不反映將來表現。投資前應了解結構性產品之性質及風險,並詳閱有關上市文件,獨立決定是否適合自己,若需要應諮詢專業建議。本行及其委任之流通量提供者可能是結構性產品的唯一市場參與者,而結構性產品的二級市場可能有限。謹請注意,牛熊證設有強制收回機制,因此有可能提早終止,在此情況下(i)N類牛熊證投資者會損失於牛熊證的全部投資;而(ii)R類牛熊證之剩餘價值則可能為零。買賣與美國指數掛鈎的結構性產品可能帶有額外風險,包括:(a)與交易日和交易時間差異有關的風險;(b) 有關指數的公開資料較少,或未有提供中文版本;(c) 與指數有關的政治和經濟風險(例如美國);(d) 匯率風險; (e) 可能延遲結算及(f) 在成份股並無交易時公佈指數水平與MSCI中國A50互聯互通指數掛鈎的衍生權證投資者可能會承受額外風險,包括:(i) 新推出指數的風險;(ii) 指數成份股為透過滬港通及/或深港通在滬港通及深港通的北向交易渠道買賣的A股;(iii) 有關指數的公開資料較少,且該等資料或未有提供中文版本;(iv) 與指數有關的政治及經濟風險;(v) 匯率風險;及(vi) 人民幣利率風險。

作者為金管局及證監會持牌人士,並無就結構性產品或相關資產持有任何直接或間接權益。
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