This article available in Chinese version only

投資時鐘與選輪策略

2022-07-12

港股進入2022年的第三季,隨着回歸「派糖」的憧憬消退,開局走勢好淡爭持,投資市場焦點重回通脹、息口及經濟衰退等主題身上,引發油價及資源價格波動,大市表現「日升日跌」走勢難料,股份表現走勢各異。

 

7月首周投資者的輪證部署相當兩極,截至7月7日數字,恒指、阿里、騰訊、美團及比迪好倉居榜首,同時間淡倉亦有不少留意恒指、騰訊、美團及納指100等。

 

短線好淡角力之際,大家不妨將眼光放遠一點,看看在經濟周期的巨輪下,不同板塊的表現如何﹗

 

有投資大行曾提出一個「投資時鐘」的觀察,並統計美股在不同經濟周期的股份表現。這個時鐘將經濟周期分成四個︰復甦、經濟過熱、滯脹及央行緊縮下的衰退以及央行寬鬆下的衰退表現。有關分析,回測了美股由1973年至2004年的股份表現,發現股價上落幅度最大往往出現於最後的兩個階段,即滯脹期的衰退以及寬鬆下的衰退。

 

在滯脹衰退中,表現最好的有醫藥、公用事業及能源股,升幅超過一成、6.4%及14.7%。表現最差則包括科技及非必需消費,跌12.5%及近9%。而在之後的衰退期,必需及非必需消費、金融就成了市場大贏家,升幅分別為13.3%、11%及8.9%。此時、能源及電信便成落後大市,跌幅分別為12.8%及10.2%。

 

以上雖然只是歷史回測,未必反映將來表現,回測亦是在美股並非港股身上,但亦有可借鑑之處。即使是經濟衰退最壞之時,投資市場不愁沒波幅機會,投資者宜先判斷當下的周期,再作板塊的部署。而部署一個較大的周期之時,大家選擇窩輪的策略上宜選較中線的產品,在其他因素不變下,每日時間損秏相較短身證為少。

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本結構性產品並無抵押品,如發行人無力償債或違約,投資者可能無法收回部份或全部應收款項。

本文由香港上海匯豐銀行有限公司(「本行」或「發行商」)發行(包括任何參考條款),僅供參考之用,並不構成邀約、游說、或建議出售或購買結構性產品。

結構性產品屬複雜產品,投資者務須就此審慎行事,除非投資者完全了解及願意承擔所涉風險,否則切勿投資此產品。結構性產品價格可急升可急跌,投資者或會損失所有或大部分投資。過往表現並不反映將來表現。投資前應了解結構性產品之性質及風險,並詳閱有關上市文件,獨立決定是否適合自己,若需要應諮詢專業建議。本行及其委任之流通量提供者可能是結構性產品的唯一市場參與者,而結構性產品的二級市場可能有限。謹請注意,牛熊證設有強制收回機制,因此有可能提早終止,在此情況下(i)N類牛熊證投資者會損失於牛熊證的全部投資;而(ii)R類牛熊證之剩餘價值則可能為零。買賣與美國指數掛鈎的結構性產品可能帶有額外風險,包括:(a)與交易日和交易時間差異有關的風險;(b) 有關指數的公開資料較少,或未有提供中文版本;(c) 與指數有關的政治和經濟風險(例如美國);(d) 匯率風險; (e) 可能延遲結算及(f) 在成份股並無交易時公佈指數水平與MSCI中國A50互聯互通指數掛鈎的衍生權證投資者可能會承受額外風險,包括:(i) 新推出指數的風險;(ii) 指數成份股為透過滬港通及/或深港通在滬港通及深港通的北向交易渠道買賣的A股;(iii) 有關指數的公開資料較少,且該等資料或未有提供中文版本;(iv) 與指數有關的政治及經濟風險;(v) 匯率風險;及(vi) 人民幣利率風險。

作者為金管局及證監會持牌人士,並無就結構性產品或相關資產持有任何直接或間接權益。
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