港股進入2022年的第三季，隨着回歸「派糖」的憧憬消退，開局走勢好淡爭持，投資市場焦點重回通脹、息口及經濟衰退等主題身上，引發油價及資源價格波動，大市表現「日升日跌」走勢難料，股份表現走勢各異。
7月首周投資者的輪證部署相當兩極，截至7月7日數字，恒指、阿里、騰訊、美團及比迪好倉居榜首，同時間淡倉亦有不少留意恒指、騰訊、美團及納指100等。
短線好淡角力之際，大家不妨將眼光放遠一點，看看在經濟周期的巨輪下，不同板塊的表現如何﹗
有投資大行曾提出一個「投資時鐘」的觀察，並統計美股在不同經濟周期的股份表現。這個時鐘將經濟周期分成四個︰復甦、經濟過熱、滯脹及央行緊縮下的衰退以及央行寬鬆下的衰退表現。有關分析，回測了美股由1973年至2004年的股份表現，發現股價上落幅度最大往往出現於最後的兩個階段，即滯脹期的衰退以及寬鬆下的衰退。
在滯脹衰退中，表現最好的有醫藥、公用事業及能源股，升幅超過一成、6.4%及14.7%。表現最差則包括科技及非必需消費，跌12.5%及近9%。而在之後的衰退期，必需及非必需消費、金融就成了市場大贏家，升幅分別為13.3%、11%及8.9%。此時、能源及電信便成落後大市，跌幅分別為12.8%及10.2%。
以上雖然只是歷史回測，未必反映將來表現，回測亦是在美股並非港股身上，但亦有可借鑑之處。即使是經濟衰退最壞之時，投資市場不愁沒波幅機會，投資者宜先判斷當下的周期，再作板塊的部署。而部署一個較大的周期之時，大家選擇窩輪的策略上宜選較中線的產品，在其他因素不變下，每日時間損秏相較短身證為少。
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