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有大行上調碳酸鋰價格預測 相關個股留意小米沽22196/贛鋒購14802

2025-12-18 Article
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Warning This article available in Chinese version only

市場最近密切關注AI的發展,其影響已波及晶片相關股票,導致納指周三(12月17日)下跌近2%。恒指在周四早段也受影響,一度下跌了200點。如果擔心恒指可能因AI估值受到拖累,看淡者可以考慮恒指認沽證(20877),其行使價為24,875點,2026年3月到期,實際槓桿為11.8倍。另一方面,北水活動出現回暖跡象,周三流入市場達79億元。如果看好恒指的反彈,則可關注恒指認購證(22601),行使價為27,135點,2026年2月到期,實際槓桿21倍。

在原材料方面,一些大行上調了碳酸鋰的價格預測至18,000美元,此調整由儲能系統和商用車需求驅動。具有上游和下游業務的贛鋒鋰業(1772)周三表現突出,股價在周五上漲了半成,但周四有所回落。對鋰價持續上漲的樂觀者可以關注贛鋒認購證(14802),行使價為61.55元,2026年5月到期,實際槓桿3.4倍。

同時,鋰價上升可能給小米等手機製造商帶來不利影響,因為鋰是重要原材料,其成本上升可能影響電池製造成本及定價策略。小米的股價連續四天收陰,周四失守了40元大關。如看淡小米未來走勢,可關注小米認沽證(22196),行使價為35.16元,2026年4月到期,實際槓桿6.4倍。反之,小米周三獲北水注資近10億元,看好回彈者可參考小米認購證(22790),行使價為48.81元,2026年6月到期,實際槓桿6.2倍。

本結構性產品並無抵押品,如發行人無力償債或違約,投資者可能無法收回部份或全部應收款項。

本文由香港上海匯豐銀行有限公司(「本行」或「發行商」)發行(包括任何參考條款),僅供參考之用,並不構成邀約、游說、或建議出售或購買結構性產品。

結構性產品屬複雜產品,投資者務須就此審慎行事,除非投資者完全了解及願意承擔所涉風險,否則切勿投資此產品。結構性產品價格可急升可急跌,投資者或會損失所有或大部分投資。過往表現並不反映將來表現。投資前應了解結構性產品之性質及風險,並詳閱有關上市文件,獨立決定是否適合自己,若需要應諮詢專業建議。本行及其委任之流通量提供者可能是結構性產品的唯一市場參與者,而結構性產品的二級市場可能有限。謹請注意,牛熊證設有強制收回機制,因此有可能提早終止,在此情況下(i)N類牛熊證投資者會損失於牛熊證的全部投資;而(ii)R類牛熊證之剩餘價值則可能為零。買賣與美國指數掛鈎的結構性產品可能帶有額外風險,包括:(a)與交易日和交易時間差異有關的風險;(b) 有關指數的公開資料較少,或未有提供中文版本;(c) 與指數有關的政治和經濟風險(例如美國);(d) 匯率風險; (e) 可能延遲結算及(f) 在成份股並無交易時公佈指數水平與MSCI中國A50互聯互通指數掛鈎的衍生權證投資者可能會承受額外風險,包括:(i) 新推出指數的風險;(ii) 指數成份股為透過滬港通及/或深港通在滬港通及深港通的北向交易渠道買賣的A股;(iii) 有關指數的公開資料較少,且該等資料或未有提供中文版本;(iv) 與指數有關的政治及經濟風險;(v) 匯率風險;及(vi) 人民幣利率風險。

作者為金管局及證監會持牌人士,並無就結構性產品或相關資產持有任何直接或間接權益。

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